Are the Trail Blazers a Legitimate Contender To Win the West?


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With nearly half of the NBA season behind us, we’re safe declaring the Portland Trail Blazers a legitimate contender.

Before the season the Blazers were forecast by the Vegas odds makers to finish in the neighborhood of 38 wins. Yet even after stumbling through a 4-4 stretch over the last two weeks, the Blazers are 28-9, just a game and a half behind the Spurs and Pacers for the best record in the league.

Teams don’t accidentally fall into a top three record in the NBA half way through the year, let alone in their conference. Portland, four games up on the Rockets and Warriors for the 5th spot in the conference, appears very capable of locking in home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.

The question, then, is whether Portland can separate themselves from the rest of the conference, likely with the Spurs and Thunder, as authentic candidates to win the West.

About halfway through the campaign, there’s both positive and negative signs for Portland. Some indicate Rip City has a real chance to host Finals games for the first time since 1992. Yet others throw up huge warning signs that the Blazers success into 2014 could be short lived.

First, the good:

Before jumping into statistics and analytical wonkiness, let’s take a step back with a very simple, very valid statement. The Blazers starters, a grouping that has played the 2nd most minutes together of any 5-man unit in the NBA, are really, really good. Like elite-level good, perhaps the best starting five in the NBA.

Seemingly out of nowhere, LaMarcus Aldridge has become the 2nd best power forward in the West, and perhaps the entire league (sorry, Kevin Love’s better, and there’s not much argument against it). As the hub of the Blazers offense, Aldridge’s presence as a deadly turnaround post threat and solid mid-range jump shooter draws attention away from Portland’s litany of jump shooters spaced around the 3-point arc. LA’s increased his rebounding rate significantly since last season, has an unguardable and reliable fade away jumper when he turns over his right shoulder on the left block (unless Anthony Davis and his go-go gadget arms are defending him), and is emotionally invested. He’ll be an All-Star for the 3rd straight year and an elite player at his position for the foreseeable future.

There’s an argument that Damian Lillard is the 4th or 5th best point guard in the conference, perhaps higher on any given week due to injuries to other players (like Russell Westbrook). Lillard’s game meshes well with Aldridge, as he’s a shooter first, driver second. In his second year, his best comp in the league might be Stephen Curry; high praise, indeed, as Curry’s averaging 23 points and 9 assists per game. Though Lillard’s stats are a step behind Curry’s, they each use the threat of the jumper to create driving lanes and open looks for teammates. He’s still a minus defensively (we’ll get to that in a minute), but considering he’s played just 119 NBA games, he’s improving incrementally with time. Nonetheless, he’s the real deal as a second banana offensively to Aldridge, an elite scorer on that end that allows the Blazers to play the majority of their minutes with two threats that stretch defenses.

I’m shocked that I’m writing this, but like Aldridge, Nicolas Batum is the 2nd best player in the conference at his position. With the exception of Kevin Durant, no West small forward is as complete a package as Batum. Though Andre Iguodala, Chandler Parsons, and Kawhi Leonard may be close, Batum’s combination of shooting, passing, and play-making abilities set him apart from those three. Batum still can float through some games, seeming disinterested at times, and his defense has always been overstated, but his positives outweigh the negatives.

Portland’s unsung hero in the starting lineup, Wesley Matthews, lacks elite athleticism and the ability to create shots off the bounce, but he’s moved himself into the West’s elite among shooting guards seemingly out of grit and toughness. After James Harden, there’s a fairly broad gulf until you reach the next best 2, but Matthews should be lumped in with Klay Thompson and Goran Dragic as the next best Western shooting guards in terms of offensive and defensive packages. Wes is shooting 42% from deep, 3rd best in the NBA at his position among players averaging over 30 minutes a game. With apologies to Kyle Korver and Bradley Beal, the two players ahead of him in that category, Matthews’ defensive abilities far make up the slight shooting edge they have. I long thought Matthews was best suited to be a 6th man on a contender, yet his improvements (and the way he’s been integrated into Terry Stotts system) have improbably made him a top player at his position.

And at center, Robin Lopez, a player Portland acquired for pennies on the dollar, has parlayed increased playing time (31 minutes a game this year versus a career high of 26 last year) into solid production, nearly averaging a double-double. He’ll never be a standout defensive player, but he has averaged a block and a half a game. More importantly, he’s executed Stotts’ defensive scheme, one in which his big men are instructed to drop into the paint and allow open mid-range looks when defending pick and rolls, at a solid level. His biggest impact, though, appears to be his relentless pursuit of rebounds and other loose balls. I’ve joked this season that Lopez gets his hand on every single rebound, though he doesn’t corral them at a high rate. It’s hyperbole, sure, but his effort on the boards, especially on the offensive end where Portland has the 4th highest offensive rebound rate in the league, is a nuisance to opponents. And when opponents are having to worry about Lopez pestering them in the paint, they’re taking focus away from other areas. Purely by virtue of being a giant, he makes things easier for Aldridge, something LA has commented on when talking about the career year he’s having.

So realistically the Blazers have four players in their starting lineup who are top-five players at their position in the conference. Outside of the possibility of the Spurs, there’s nobody in the rest of the West who can boast that depth across the starting five. From a pure talent level, Portland’s starting five will keep them competitive with anyone on any night.

Portland’s offense, built on the Stotts philosophy of surrounding an elite individual offensive threat with dead-eye shooting and pick and roll playmaking, might just be good enough to cover up some of the defensive problems the team has. The Blazers have been elite with the ball, boasting the league’s top offensive efficiency numbers with an average of 110.3 points per 100 possessions. Miami is a close second, but there’s a big gap before you get to 3rd best San Antonio. Over the last ten years, there’ve only been five teams with a more efficient offense than this year’s Blazers: the Heat and Thunder last year, two Steve Nash-led Suns scoring juggernauts, and the ’09 Blazers. Score at a clip that high, and you’re likely going to be competitive in the playoffs.

The starting five has been even better, scoring at an insane 113.9 points per 100 possessions, a figure that is about 12 points better than the average NBA team. When Portland substitutes Mo Williams for Lillard, the Blazers’ 2nd most used lineup, they still score at a 109.4 efficiency. Simply put, Stotts’ favorite lineups, those that will be used in the playoffs at even higher rates, have been killing opponents at the offensive end.

Portland’s scary-good offensive game, as mentioned earlier, is built through Aldridge and the plethora of shooters around him. Aldridge posts over 23 points a game, sixth best in the NBA and consistent enough to buoy the Blazers if their shooting falters. However, the team is hitting a league-best 40% of their treys on the year while taking the 2nd most attempts in the league. They jack it up a ton, but they make enough to ride that strategy to the NBA’s top offense.

With Aldridge constantly drawing help defensive attention, Portland’s built the perimeter around excellent spot up shooters from deep. When the starting unit is on the court together, Portland shoots nearly 41% from three, the third best mark among all league-wide five-man units who’ve played over 300 minutes together.

Individually, using data from the NBA’s incredibly fun to look at StatVU database (it’s seriously quite easy to start poking around at this data and look up from your laptop three hours later), Lillard is hitting 46.1% of his catch and shoot threes, 9th best in the league among players taking over 2 threes a game. Matthews is just a hair behind 45.1%. Williams is at 41%, Batum is at 38.9%, and Dorrell Wright hits 38.5%. If one of the Blazers many shooters gets a clean look, which is happening with regularity due to Portland’s crisp passing and unselfishness, it’s going down at a sweltering rate.

This week CJ McCollum returned from injury, a player who shot 36% from deep in college despite attracting the focus of every opposing defense he played. Once he gets his legs under him, McCollum will get minutes and get looks. He’ll be a welcome addition on the perimeter, someone along with Lillard and Williams who can handle the ball effectively off the catch and on pick and rolls. CJ’s likely going to take time to adapt to the speed of the NBA game, but within a few months Portland surely is optimistic that he’ll be a valuable offensive piece. Whether his defense is even at an average level is another question.

Some other important indicators of possible post-season success fall the Blazers way as well. Portland is currently 4th in point differential per game at a hearty +6.2. Over the last ten seasons, every NBA Finals contestant has ranked in the top 9 during their specific year in point differential. In fact, seven teams over that span have been between 5th and 9th in point differential. Over the last five years, at least one Finals team per year has been as low as 4th in that category. The data makes a concrete case that to be in contention for the Finals, a team must be in the top third of the NBA in point differential. However, as long as they fall in the top five or six, the door’s always open.

Aiding in their offensive success, Portland’s snagging rebounds (especially offensive boards) at a promising rate. The Blazers corral 52% of available rebounds, the 5th best mark in the league. Look back over the last five years, and in every year at least two of the four conference finalists in a given year finished in the top-8 in that category (in four of those five seasons, at least two conference finalists actually finished in the top-5 in rebounding rate). Rebounding isn’t a bullet proof indicator of success, but the data suggest at least a couple heavyweights on the glass will be in the NBA’s final four. This season, along with Portland, the Thunder, Warriors, Pacers, and Rockets are the only top-15 NBA teams ranking in the top-10 in boards, suggesting we’ll see at least two of those teams in the conference finals if the data stays the same.

And remember when I mentioned the Blazers are lights out from three, shooting 40% to league the league? That’s another positive indicator, as in four of the last five seasons there’ve been at least two conference finals cities in the top-7 in 3-point percentage. In today’s NBA, predicated on high efficiency offense (layups and threes) and strong side overloading on defense, the three is the great equalizer and a very real weapon to advance at least a couple rounds in the playoffs. The one year of the last five in which none of the four conference finalists ranked in the top-5 in downtown shooting, the Mavericks offense, coordinated by Stotts, shot 39% from deep in the playoffs on the way to a title.

Among other positive signs for Portland, without getting into great detail, the Blazers are moving the ball offensively at a brisk pace, ranking third in the league in assists per game. Despite extra passes and playing at a top-10 pace, the Blazers are the 5th best team in the NBA at protecting the ball, averaging only 13.4 turnovers a contest. And Portland’s been lights out at the free throw line, something that’s helped buoy the team in close games. The Blazers hit 82% of their freebies, best in the NBA, and a mark that would be the NBA’s 4th best full season percentage since the 2003-2004 campaign.

But I did write earlier that there’s a few negative predictors for Portland, some warning signs that could either derail the team’s push to top-4 Western finish or careen a playoff run off the tracks. There aren’t a ton of negatives for the Blazers thus far, but the ones that stand out are significant.

Portland’s defensive struggles were referenced earlier, though it’s important to realize just how mediocre the Blazers have been on that side of the ball. Some of their struggles are expected with the offensive firepower they’ve put on the floor. However, the deficiencies on D could be a serious threat to torpedo a playoff series.

There’s a general belief in the NBA that in order to win in the post-season, a team needs to be able to make stops. When coaching staffs and scouting departments are given the luxury of extra preparation and the ability to make mid-series adjustments, lock-down defensive units should prosper. Unfortunately, Portland’s personnel doesn’t lend itself to anything but allowing a flurry of opposing points.

The Blazers give up the 26th most points per game in the league. Adjusted per possession, it’s not much better, ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency, as they allow 105 points per 100 possessions. The offense has been good enough to make up for the holes in the defense, averaging a robust 5.3 more points than they allow per 100 trips, but that pales in comparison to Miami (+7.4), Oklahoma City (+7.8), Indiana (+9.4), and San Antonio (+9.1). Portland’s efficiency differential puts them right in the thick of the next perceived tier of teams, including Golden State, Houston, and the LA Clippers.

That defensive ineptitude is a problem, especially when you look at the data over the last handful of years. Over the last five years, 19 of the 20 conference finalists had defensive efficiency ranks in the top-13 of their respective seasons. In fact, 17 of the last 20 conference finalists have had top-10 defensive efficiency rankings. The three double digit teams, the ’12 Spurs, ’11 Thunder, and ’10 Seven Seconds or Less Suns, finished 11th, 13th, and 19th in defensive efficiency. The last team to reach the conference finals with a defensive efficiency rank in the 20’s was the ’07 Jazz, who were dispatched by the Spurs 4-1 after beating the 5th seeded Rockets and 8th seeded Dubs.

In the last 10 years, there have only been three teams to reach the NBA Finals with double-digit defensive rankings: the ’06 Heat (17th), an aging bunch that amped up their intensity in the playoffs, the ’06 Mavs (12th), and the ’04 Lakers (11th), another team waiting to get serious in the post-season. Average defensive teams advancing to the Finals, let alone the conference finals, is more the exception than the norm. Mediocre defenses flat out don’t get there.

Portland’s problems on that side of the ball originate with their starting five, the same unit that’s been insanely productive offensively. The Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez group allows a whopping 103.8 points per 100 possessions, a disaster when you consider that you’d hope having your best players on the floor would tighten things up on that end of the ball. Their offensive prowess still leaves them as a big net positive, but against other top teams there’s less wiggle room.

Surprisingly, when Williams is substituted for Lillard (Portland’s 2nd most common lineup) the results have been shockingly different. In 103 minutes of action together, the Williams plus the other starters lineup has given up just 92.9 points per 100 possessions, the Blazers most stout defensive group among those playing over 50 minutes together. That lineup takes a small drop offensively with Lillard sitting, but is still excellent with a 109.4 efficiency rating. It’s an odd defensive jump, as Williams is in the downside of his career. However, Williams’ experience and ability to execute Portland’s conservative scheme is the likely culprit for the difference. Lillard is still on the upswing of the learning curve relating to playing the pick and roll and executing his defensive rotations. That could be seen as a positive, though, since group’s overall success with Lillard could improve as he gets a firmer grasp of his responsibilities.

When you compare the starting five’s results on D to other commonly used lineups league wide, they aren’t close to the worst unit, with 12 5-man lineups having logged over 150 minutes giving up more points per possession than Portland. But there’s an awful lot of ineptitude on that list – teams like Charlotte, Sacramento, Utah, Philadelphia, and Toronto to name a few.

It’s still early in the year, and other commonly played 5-man units have only logged around 50 to 100 minutes together, but the results when Stotts has experimented with the bench have been disastrous. Dorell Wright is featured in the three worst defensive Portland groupings with at least 50 minutes together, lineups that give up an abysmal 124.9, 117.9, and 114.3 points per 100 possessions. To be fair, Thomas Robinson has played in two of those three units, but Wright’s inclusion sheds a lot of light on his limited minutes (13.6 per game) under Stotts and his three consecutive DNP-CD’s.

For Portland to make a leap on that end, it will likely take an infusion of new players, not adjustments, to right the ship. With 34 games under their belt, what you see is likely what you get.

The Blazers have a few assets to play with in six weeks leading up to the trade deadline, though a deal isn’t likely. Portland’s probably unwilling to give up another future draft pick, especially a first rounder, as they owe this year’s first to Charlotte and a smattering of second-rounders to teams around the league as a result of player acquisitions in the past. The main cogs on the roster aren’t going anywhere, especially with the cohesion they’ve found in the last two months. Portland could be an attractive candidate for a buy-out guy, yet they’re stuck at 15 players and would need to unload one of the Earl Watson, Victor Claver, Allen Crabbe, and Will Barton quartet to free a roster spot. Even then, they’d be playing with just a vet’s minimum contract to dangle.

If Portland pursues a trade, it’ll have to be for a low salary player in exchange for one of the aforementioned benchwarmers or Joel Freeland, Meyers “Bambi” Leonard, McCollum, or Wright. CJ is the juiciest prospect, though I doubt Neil Olshey has any interest in parting with him. Bambi, a name I bestowed on Leonard for his resemblance to a baby deer learning how to walk and run around on his new long legs, has some value to a rebuilding roster, but is far from a hot commodity around the league.

As you see, the bench in Rip City still isn’t deep, a possible glaring disaster waiting to happen for the Blazers. The subs are way better than they were a year ago in Portland, when the Blazers featured a group of sub-replacement level, leading Stotts to play his starters a historically high amount of minutes, resulting in injuries down the stretch. Portland still plays their studs a ton, with the starters averaging 20 minutes a game together, trailing only the Wolves starters.

Portland’s been fortunate with minimal injuries and zero games missed among the starting five, something unlikely to hold up over the rest of the year. Batum just broke his finger, an injury he’ll try to play through. Lopez has missed action in recent years, as have Aldridge and Matthews. Lillard is young, but he’s basically going through uncharted waters, and Mo Williams can’t be counted to play every night at the age of 31. There will be injuries at some point, forcing action onto reserves that may submarine a stretch of Portland’s campaign. Of course, Portland may go through the year with perfect health, but as long as they enter the playoffs unscathed, they’ll be happy, a dangerous competition to the rest of the West.

It’s obviously unclear whether Rip City will find themselves on the basketball map at the end of May and into June, but it’s clear there’s a decent chance. Few teams in recent history have a profile like the Blazers, a incredibly talented core who lights it up on offense and gets lit up on defense. At the very least, there’s opportunity ahead, as enough positive indicators lay out a case for the Blazers to get as far as the conference or NBA Finals.

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