Fantasy Scrambler: The Zone Read QB

This week I want to take a look at some of the trends that I’ve been noticing regarding zone-read quarterbacks. This includes Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Geno Smith, and Terrelle Pryor.

I have noticed that all of the aforementioned QB’s who are not rookies have declined in production in their second and third years running this system. As for the rookies, it is clear that the league has started to figure out how to defend these offenses better than a few years ago when Cam went off in his rookie campaign. None of these rookie QB’s are blistering the NFL at near the pace that Wilson or Kaepernick did in their rookie seasons.

Take for example, Cam Newton’s production from year one to year two. In 2011, Cam threw for 4,051 yards, 21 touchdowns and threw 17 picks while he rushed for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns. These numbers are awesome as far as fantasy production is concerned. In 2012, Cam threw for 3,869 yards, 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He rushed for more yards, 741, but had six less touchdowns for a grand total of eight less TD’s than the previous year. Through four games in 2013, Newton is on pace for a career high in passing touchdowns, 24, but is tracking for only 3,600 yards. His rushing totals have fallen off considerably so far this year as well. He is on pace for career lows in yards, 500, and touchdowns, 4.

Now let’s compare Russell Wilson’s numbers from last year to 2013. In 2012, Wilson threw for 3,118 yards, 21 touchdowns against 10 picks, while rushing for 480 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is on pace for virtually the same amount of passing yards, however, he is tracking for two less TD’s and two more INT’s. Wilson is on pace to best his rushing yardage total this year but he has yet to find the end zone in the first five games thus far.

As for the 49’ers signal caller, Kaepernick is on pace to have better numbers this year, however, he is pacing to throw more interceptions than a year ago and, like Wilson, has yet to score a rushing touchdown through the first five games of 2013.

Now that I have shown you the stats, let me tell you why, in my opinion, these quarterbacks are finding it tougher to equal their first years as starters.

First off, it is safe to say that the NFL was caught off guard by these offenses and it has taken a few years to study the game films and figure out how to defend such dynamic quarterbacks.

Also, consider this. Once a zone-read quarterback breaks out to have monster rookie years, they establish themselves as franchise players. The owners of these players, in the desire to protect the faces of their organizations, just might nudge coaches into restraining these QB’s from taking the risks that initially made them statistics beasts. I know this sounds a little “conspiracy theory”, but the numbers don’t lie. Besides, as conspiracies in the NFL go, this one is tame in comparison to some others. I’m looking at you Belichick.

You may be asking yourself, “What does this have to do with fantasy football?” Well, I wanted to bring this trend up as a caution to drafting these players in the future. If Terrelle Pryor and Geno Smith put up the same kind of numbers as zone-read QB’s have before them, just remember what you’ve read here when it is time to draft these players next year. Temper expectations when it comes to these types of players and the amount of production that one can anticipate.

That’s all I got for this week. Remember to Keep On Scrambling and hit me up on Twitter @MaahsScrambler with any fantasy advice or line up questions.